Determinants of No-Vote Behavior in the European Union Constitution Referendums: A Post-Functionalist Logistic Regression Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37241/jatss.2026.150Keywords:
European Union, European Constitution, referendum, voter behaviorAbstract
Introduction: The idea of drafting a constitution in the European Union (EU) has been regarded as a significant step toward achieving political integration in Europe. However, its rejection in the 2005 referenda in France and the Netherlands revealed the necessity of examining the underlying reasons for these outcomes within the context of European legitimacy.
Method: This study conducts a descriptive analysis of Eurobarometer 63.4 survey data and evaluates factors influencing referendum outcomes through a binary logistic regression analysis using SPSS.
Results or Findings: The findings indicate that individuals who feel unrepresented in the EU, fear the loss of national identity and culture, and are dissatisfied with the functioning of democracy in the Union are significantly more likely to vote against the constitution.
Discussion or Conclusion: Considering contemporary developments such as Brexit and the rise of right-wing populist movements, the slowdown of integration in the early 2000s emerges as a relevant issue. The study suggests that addressing democratic deficits and identity-based concerns is crucial for the future of the European project.
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