Avrupa Birliği Anayasası Referandumlarında Karşı Oy Davranışının Belirleyicileri: Post-Fonksiyonalist Bir Lojistik Regresyon Analizi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37241/jatss.2026.150Anahtar Kelimeler:
Avrupa Birliği- Avrupa Anayasası- referandum- seçmen davranışıÖzet
Giriş: Avrupa Birliği'nde (AB) bir anayasa taslağı hazırlama fikri, Avrupa'da siyasi entegrasyonun sağlanması yolunda önemli bir adım olarak kabul edilmiştir. Ancak, 2005 yılında Fransa ve Hollanda'da yapılan referandumlarda anayasanın reddedilmesi, bu kararların ardındaki nedenlerin Avrupa meşruiyeti bağlamında incelenmesi gerekliliğini ortaya koymuştur.
Yöntem: Bu çalışma, Eurobarometer 63.4 anket verilerinin betimsel bir analizini yapmakta ve ardından SPSS kullanarak ikili lojistik regresyon analizi yoluyla referandum sonuçlarını etkileyen faktörleri değerlendirmektedir.
Sonuçlar ya da Bulgular: Analiz sonuçları, AB içinde temsil edilmediğini hisseden, ulusal kimlik ve kültür kaybı korkusu yaşayan ve Birlik içindeki demokrasinin işleyişinden memnun olmayan bireylerin anayasaya karşı oy kullanma olasılığının daha yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir.
Tartışma ya da Yapılan Çıkarımlar: Brexit ve sağ popülist hareketlerin yükselişi gibi güncel gelişmeler dikkate alındığında, 2000'li yılların başındaki entegrasyon yavaşlaması önemli bir mesele olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Çalışma, demokratik açıkların ve kimlik temelli kaygıların giderilmesinin Avrupa projesinin geleceği için temel önemde olduğunu göstermektedir.
İndirmeler
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