Türkiye’de Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Uzun Dönemli Büyümeye Etkileri: İçsel Büyüme Teorisine Dayalı Ampirik Bir İnceleme
Özet
Bu çalışma, önce sermayenin geniş bir tanımı bağlamında Cobb-Douglas tipi bir üretim fonksiyonu ile temsil edilen bir içsel büyüme modelinden hareketle, sabit ve yabancı sermaye yatırımları ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini bir optimal kontrol problemi olarak tanımlamaktadır. Daha sonra bu problemin çözümü sonucunda üretilen basit bir basit büyüme eşitliği temelinde geliştirilen dört ampirik model çerçevesinde, Türkiye’de 1980-2020 dönemi için sabit sermaye yatırımı ve yabancı sermaye yatırımı olarak doğrudan yatırım, portföy yatırımı, diğer yatırım ve toplam yabancı yatırımın net sermaye giriş oranlarındaki değişmelerin kişi başına GSYH büyüme oranını uzun dönemde etkileyip etkilemediğini ARDL sınır testi yöntemini kullanarak araştırmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, sermaye yatırım oranları ve kişi başına GSYH büyüme oranı arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin tanımlandığını, ancak sabit sermaye yatırımı ve farklı formlardan oluşan yabancı sermaye yatırımı oranlarındaki değişmelerin kişi başına GSYH büyüme oranını anlamlı olarak uzun dönemde etkilemediğini, ancak kısa dönemli etkilerin oluştuğunu göstermektedir.
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